If you have understood the importance of finding value bets to win your long-term football bets. You would know that it is important to understand how to calculate if an odd is of value.
However, for newbies that don’t understand the rudiments, you only need to establish the probabilities of the possible outcomes in order to find the real value bets.
Below you will find a practical guide of the aspects that you will have to study, about the teams and matches in which you are thinking of betting and in the end tips on how to use this information correctly.
We have Five major criteria that we recommend to take into consideration when calculating odds for football betting.
- Strength of the teams
- Team Trajectory/Home and Away Statistics
- History and Rivalry between teams
- Team news
The first thing you have to do is use your intuition as a football bettor. Before choosing a match to analyze more in depth, you look at the odds offered for all the different matches and many times you can already intuit where you can find value bets.
With a little experience you easily learn to transform the odds offered by bookmakers into odds.
If you intuit that a team has at least 50% probability of winning and you see that there are bookmakers that offer odds greater than 2.00 it is worth analyzing the game in-depth to see if it really is a value bet.
Strength of the Teams.
Once you have chosen a match to analyze, the first thing you have to look at is the ranking in the league and the strength of each team.
Be very careful when using the league classification as the only criteria for betting. The classification using league position should not be used at all as a criterion of choice in the first months of the season since they are useless in this period.
As the league reaches the middle (except the last 3-5 rounds), the classification could help you when you want to evaluate the different teams, but it should never be used as the main criterion.
The position in the league is one of the main criteria used by bookmakers to establish their odds, so it is difficult to find value bets according to the table.
The strength of each team includes both the level of its players and the technical team and even the fans if they play at home.
It is a basic identifier for comparing teams but is usually not the best identifier to find value bets because it is one of the main factors (with the league classification) that the new punters use to place their bets.
Team Trajectory/ Home and Away Statistics
Watch how the team is doing lately. The idea is that a team that is winning recently will gain confidence while losing teams often lack the necessary grip to win.
This is usually true, but other aspects arise, especially teams in mid-table positions, which, by definition, are quite unpredictable. So, when a midtableteam has a good or a bad run, it is not unusual for things to suddenly change completely.
Always check the home and away statistics. Some teams play better at home, while others do it away from home.
It is often thought that about half of the matches are won by the home team; A quarter ends in a draw, and the rest won by the visitors. This usually happens in almost all professional leagues, the advantage at home is real.
One method to help predict the outcome is to look at all the results of the previous matches during the current league season to help you calculate the odds of a result.
If we analyze the trajectory of the home team with that of the visitor when playing away from home, we can estimate the probabilities of the possible results.
For example, the trajectories of two teams are as follows: The home team is 7-2-1 (win-draw-lose), and the away team is 1-3-6.
With this data, we can make a calculation to estimate the odds that the home team wins, draws or wins the team away from home.
HOME VICTORY = 7 + 6 = 13 of 20 games in total = 65%
Draw = 2 + 3 = 5 of 20 games in total = 25%
VISITING VICTORY = 1 + 1 = 2 of 20 games in total = 10%
So according to this calculation the fair odds for this match would be 1.53 – 4.00 – 10.00 but obviously all other factors must be taken into account.
History and Rivalry between Teams
Check the history of the matches between the clubs. You will be surprised how history repeats itself in some games, year after year but history is not a very important factor either.
Another complicated factor is the game of local derbies. Matches between fierce rivals are often fought thoroughly, simply because fans of both teams demand the best of their own against the “enemy.”
Real Madrid matches against Atlético de Madrid are usually always very hard and fierce, regardless of the recent trajectory of the teams or the classification in the league.
In general, the effect, in this case, is that the natural advantage at home ends up largely disappearing. It may not make sense, but it’s true; the visiting team is motivated and seems to come up in front of a hostile crowd, more easily than if it played against any rival.
Notice that “rivals” are not restricted only to a local level; Some parties, such as Real Madrid against Barcelona, acquire another dimension.
Be sure to find out about all injuries and suspensions. What players are missing and the importance they have. If there are injuries, check if they come from behind or are recent, for example, from the last game.
How good are the players who will replace them? Some players are more important than others; For example, the lack of a captain can be a sign of lack of leadership.
Although bookmakers do take this type of information into account when establishing their odds, last-minute injuries are not always reflected in the odds they provide.
Example On How To Calculate Odds Using The Criteria Above
Knowing how to establish the probabilities of the possible results in a football match is essential to be able to find value bets and thus be able to win money in the long term.
The first thing we recommend you do before beginning the deepest analysis is to establish the percentages of the possible results.
You can simply use your knowledge of football, experience, hunch, etc. (all the factors that you normally use when betting without a previous analysis).
So you have a base and can start analyzing the factors mentioned above and according to your analysis, modify your initial percentages.
For example, if you initially think that the odds are the following 55% / 25% / 20% and you discover that the team playing away from home (although it is worse ranked) has won its last two games away from home and has not lost in the Last 5 rounds while the home team has a regular run.
Change the percentages to the following 40% / 33% / 27%. If you discover that the away team has two major players suspended change the percentages again to 45% / 30% / 25%.
Towards the end, if you discover that the home team is playing in the semifinals of a cup the following week and some players may rest. While the away team is playing to be safe, then change the percentages again to 38% / 34% / 28%.
In principle it will take you more time to do this type of analysis but once you are accustomed everything is done much faster.