Tag: Football Betting

How To Calculate Odds In Football Betting?


If you have understood the importance of finding value bets to win your long-term football bets. You would know that it is important to understand how to calculate if an odd is of value.

However, for newbies that don’t understand the rudiments, you only need to establish the probabilities of the possible outcomes in order to find the real value bets.

Below you will find a practical guide of the aspects that you will have to study, about the teams and matches in which you are thinking of betting and in the end tips on how to use this information correctly.

We have Five major criteria that we recommend to take into consideration when calculating odds for football betting.

  • Intuition
  • Strength of the teams
  • Team Trajectory/Home and Away Statistics
  • History and Rivalry between teams
  • Team news



The first thing you have to do is use your intuition as a football bettor. Before choosing a match to analyze more in depth, you look at the odds offered for all the different matches and many times you can already intuit where you can find value bets.

With a little experience you easily learn to transform the odds offered by bookmakers into odds.

If you intuit that a team has at least 50% probability of winning and you see that there are bookmakers that offer odds greater than 2.00 it is worth analyzing the game in-depth to see if it really is a value bet.




Strength of the Teams.

Once you have chosen a match to analyze, the first thing you have to look at is the ranking in the league and the strength of each team.

Be very careful when using the league classification as the only criteria for betting.  The classification using league position should not be used at all as a criterion of choice in the first months of the season since they are useless in this period.

As the league reaches the middle (except the last 3-5 rounds), the classification could help you when you want to evaluate the different teams, but it should never be used as the main criterion.

The position in the league is one of the main criteria used by bookmakers to establish their odds, so it is difficult to find value bets according to the table.

The strength of each team includes both the level of its players and the technical team and even the fans if they play at home.

It is a basic identifier for comparing teams but is usually not the best identifier to find value bets because it is one of the main factors (with the league classification) that the new punters use to place their bets.


Team Trajectory/ Home and Away Statistics

Watch how the team is doing lately. The idea is that a team that is winning recently will gain confidence while losing teams often lack the necessary grip to win.

This is usually true, but other aspects arise, especially teams in mid-table positions, which, by definition, are quite unpredictable. So, when a midtableteam has a good or a bad run, it is not unusual for things to suddenly change completely.

Always check the home and away statistics. Some teams play better at home, while others do it away from home.

It is often thought that about half of the matches are won by the home team; A quarter ends in a draw, and the rest won by the visitors. This usually happens in almost all professional leagues, the advantage at home is real.

One method to help predict the outcome is to look at all the results of the previous matches during the current league season to help you calculate the odds of a result.

If we analyze the trajectory of the home team with that of the visitor when playing away from home, we can estimate the probabilities of the possible results.

For example, the trajectories of two teams are as follows: The home team is 7-2-1 (win-draw-lose), and the away team is 1-3-6.

With this data, we can make a calculation to estimate the odds that the home team wins, draws or wins the team away from home.

HOME VICTORY = 7 + 6 = 13 of 20 games in total = 65%

Draw = 2 + 3 = 5 of 20 games in total = 25%

VISITING VICTORY = 1 + 1 = 2 of 20 games in total = 10%

So according to this calculation the fair odds for this match would be 1.53 – 4.00 – 10.00 but obviously all other factors must be taken into account.


History and Rivalry between Teams

Check the history of the matches between the clubs. You will be surprised how history repeats itself in some games, year after year but history is not a very important factor either.

Another complicated factor is the game of local derbies. Matches between fierce rivals are often fought thoroughly, simply because fans of both teams demand the best of their own against the “enemy.”

Real Madrid matches against Atlético de Madrid are usually always very hard and fierce, regardless of the recent trajectory of the teams or the classification in the league.

In general, the effect, in this case, is that the natural advantage at home ends up largely disappearing. It may not make sense, but it’s true; the visiting team is motivated and seems to come up in front of a hostile crowd, more easily than if it played against any rival.

Notice that “rivals” are not restricted only to a local level; Some parties, such as Real Madrid against Barcelona, acquire another dimension.


Team News

Be sure to find out about all injuries and suspensions. What players are missing and the importance they have. If there are injuries, check if they come from behind or are recent, for example, from the last game.

How good are the players who will replace them? Some players are more important than others; For example, the lack of a captain can be a sign of lack of leadership.

Although bookmakers do take this type of information into account when establishing their odds, last-minute injuries are not always reflected in the odds they provide.


Example On How To Calculate Odds Using The Criteria Above

Knowing how to establish the probabilities of the possible results in a football match is essential to be able to find value bets and thus be able to win money in the long term.

The first thing we recommend you do before beginning the deepest analysis is to establish the percentages of the possible results.

You can simply use your knowledge of football, experience, hunch, etc. (all the factors that you normally use when betting without a previous analysis).

So you have a base and can start analyzing the factors mentioned above and according to your analysis, modify your initial percentages.

For example, if you initially think that the odds are the following 55% / 25% / 20% and you discover that the team playing away from home (although it is worse ranked) has won its last two games away from home and has not lost in the Last 5 rounds while the home team has a regular run.

Change the percentages to the following 40% / 33% / 27%. If you discover that the away team has two major players suspended change the percentages again to 45% / 30% / 25%.

Towards the end, if you discover that the home team is playing in the semifinals of a cup the following week and some players may rest. While the away team is playing to be safe, then change the percentages again to 38% / 34% / 28%.

In principle it will take you more time to do this type of analysis but once you are accustomed everything is done much faster.

No Comments

Categories: Tipster Soccer


What do Odds mean in Football Betting?


Many football fans like to add a little spice to their enjoyment of their weekend games by placing s small bet on the outcome of the match – win, lose or draw – or on a variety of other wagers that are made available by bookmakers, such as the scorer of the first goal, total number of goals scored, half-time score or even more exotic wagers such as number of corners awarded, or the amount of yellow and red cards handed out by a referee.

Yet, if they go to the website of an online bookmaker, or set foot inside the door of their local turf accountant for the first time, they are likely to see a wall of odds displayed which, to the uninitiated, can seem as intelligible as an unknown, foreign language.

Therefore, if you want to bet on football, it is important to understand the concept of odds before you lay down your hard earned money.

In simple terms, odds are a numerical expression of the likelihood of an event occurring – Arsenal to beat Southampton, for example, or Manchester City to draw with Liverpool.


Why Bookmakers Always Have the Edge

Bookmakers calculate their odds in a variety of ways, employing in-house statisticians and actuaries, and complex proprietary algorithmic models. No two computer programs are the same, which is why different bookmakers may add slightly different odds on the same football match, or sporting event.

It is important to realise that bookmakers always have the edge. They are not offering their services for free – they are commercial enterprises which have shareholders and other stakeholders to satisfy, and there aim is to make a profit. That means that, from a purely statistical viewpoint, the odds displayed by a bookmaker are not correct. They have been weighted in favour of the bookmaker.

Some may not be happy with this. However, if you object to this on ethical grounds, then you probably shouldn’t be betting at all!



Why Bookmakers Defy the Rules of Mathematics

This can be illustrated by way of an example. If you toss a coin, the chances of it landing heads or tails are 50/50. Even if the coin is weighted so that it is pre-disposed to fall on one side or another, the total of the combined odds percentage can never exceed 100%. That is a mathematical impossibility.

However, when you view the odds offered by bookmakers on a football match, when you add the percentages of the possible outcomes together, they will always exceed 100%.


This can be illustrated by an example.

Arsenal were due to travel to play Watford in the Premier League on September 15th. One of the leading online bookmakers offered the following ante-post odds:

  • Arsenal win 11/10
  • Watford win 11/4
  • Draw 14/5

This was a UK betting site so the odds were displayed using fractional odds, which allow a gambler to work out how much they could win in comparison to their original stake. So, if they wanted to bet on Watford winning, for every £4 bet, they would win £11.




Somebody based in Europe, or a country like Australia or Canada, could gain on a local site and find odds for the same match displayed in a different format. In this case:

  • Arsenal win 2.10
  • Watford win 3.75
  • Draw 3.80

The difference with this system, known as decimal odds, is that it is simpler to understand, because it shows how much a gambler will win if the bet succeeds, including the return of their original stake money (whereas this is just inferred with fractional odds). So again, using the above example, if they bet £1 on a draw and the bet succeeds, then they will get back £3.80.

Whichever system is used, the sum of the probabilities is the same though.

Arsenal to win has a probability of (1/2.10) = 47.62%

Watford to win has a probability of (1/3.75) = 26.67%

The draw has a probability of (1/3.80) = 26.32%

If the sum of the probabilities is added up it equals 100.61% (47.62% + 26.67% + 26.32%). That means that, in this case, the bookmaker’s profit is 0.61% (100.61% – 100%).

In other words, if somebody wanted to cover all the bets, they would need to spend £100.61 to recover £100.


No Comments

Categories: Tipster Soccer